Remember how in 2021, the Suez Canal was blocked for six days by a container ship called Ever Given?
For those who don’t know, a 400 meter ship weighing more than 200,000 tonnes ended up wedged across the narrow Suez Canal, blocking 369 ships carrying nearly US$ 10 billion in goods.
The Suez Canal is one of the most important shipping routes in the world, and it being blocked added to an inflation-problem the entire world was then grappling with.
Guess what - we are again at a point, where several problems have jacked up container prices by nearly 4x over the last year, again sending inflation concerns across a world desperately waiting for interest rate cuts.
What’s Happening?
Several attacks by militants in the Red Sea have resulted in ships being diverted away from Suez Canal. Ships are instead taking the longer route around Africa, causing a massive upsurge in both the time and cost of moving goods around the world.
Freight rates have gone multifold thanks to the commotion in the Red Sea, and the problem is only getting worse.
Re-routing, fluctuations in services, reconfiguration of vessel sizes and other operational issues have been causing congestion at ports, with Singapore being the most impacted.
Port congestion at Singapore is said to have reached alarming levels, sending ships in long waiting periods, further increasing costs.
Why Should I Care?
This spike in shipping costs is not just a headache for exporters but also a contributor to the inflationary pressures.
Higher freight costs mean higher prices for imported goods, which then get passed on to consumers.
This vicious cycle adds another layer of complexity for central banks as they try to balance growth with inflation control.
After a coordinated global fight against inflation over the last three years, the beast finally looked like it was under control.
The markets have been eagerly waiting for rate cuts by the Fed or by the RBI, which would signal a significant change in stance from inflation-control to growth-orientation.
But if inflation becomes a problem again, we might just be faced with a longer wait on rate cuts.
What Now?
Inflation in India has been on a bit of a rollercoaster ride lately. Despite the strong GDP growth, inflation, particularly food inflation, has been creeping up. The RBI Governor, Shaktikanta Das, has made it clear that the central bank's primary focus is on taming inflation.
The Governor’s favourite analogy of inflation being like an elephant slowly making its way through a forest perfectly captures the RBI's stance. They’re laser-focused on ensuring this 'elephant' doesn't trample on the economic growth that India has been enjoying.
In June 2024, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) saw a rise to 5.1%, driven mainly by a surge in vegetable prices. Food inflation firmed up to 8.4% in June from 7.9% in May, while core inflation remained unchanged at 3.1%. While core inflation and fuel prices have remained stable, it's the food inflation that's causing the most worry.
With the RBI aiming to steer inflation towards its 4% target, the current levels are too high for comfort. This means that any talk of rate cuts might just have to wait until the inflationary pressures ease off.
In this context, a global shipping problem and higher transportation costs can potentially add to India’s existing problems.
What about the Markets?
India has bigger battles to fight, which are dependent on fiscal policy and the monsoon much more than shipping costs.
All eyes for now will be on the budget scheduled for Tuesday. If there is any relaxation on fiscal policy aggression, the markets will seek for monetary policy to provide the required boost.
However, the hands of the central bank might just be tied if inflation - caused by shipping or otherwise, continues being an irritant.
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